MODERATOR: Hello. Good morning everyone. Thank you for coming over for this Saturday’s edition of weekly news forum.

We all know that President Bongbong Marcos recently made a brief state visit to China to renew ties with one of our biggest trading partners and to discuss ways to expand the economic cooperation between our two countries.

For today, we invited Ambassador Jimmy Florcruz who was recently designated the Philippine Ambassador [to China] after the demise of Ambassador Chito Sta. Romana last year. He is also an old hand in China. He has been living in China for the past 47 years, since 1971, so he knows; he has an intimate grasp of Chinese history, society and culture and kung ano iyong possible contours ng bilateral relations in the next five and a half years.

We also have Ms. Lily Lim of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce [and Industry], who can give us insights on the business prospects with China, between our two countries in light of talks with Chinese business sector.

We also have Professor Froilan Calilung of the University of Sto. Tomas’ Department of Political Science who can give us insights as well on what is likely to happen in our bilateral relations, particularly in terms of dealing with the contentious issues in the South China Sea.

Siguro let’s ask each of them to give a short opening statement before we open the floor to questions from media. Who would like to take first crack? Siguro si Ambassador na.

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Good morning everyone. It’s a pleasure to be with you and as a former… always a journalist, I am media-friendly. I know the importance of news and analysis and that’s why also I am here to just help answer questions. Of course I’m on the other side of the fence now, I’ll be answering questions. I’ll try my best to give context to the news that you may be following.

I’m also happy that I am joining you, thinking of my old friend, Julius Fortuna, who I believe is one of the founders of this weekly forum. Julius was a very good friend and I have attended previous sessions like this in Sulu Hotel where I think it all started. So it’s my privilege to join you this morning. I’ll be happy to, again, share my opinion, my perspective on our bilateral relations now and in the future.

1. LILY LIM: Thank you, your Excellency, Mr. Florcruz, our fellow speakers on the table and fellow media men. And yes, and ladies and gentlemen, good morning.

This is with very much pleasure for me to be here representing our Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry Incorporated. But at the same time, I feel so proud that I’m with media group, the journalists here everybody because I remember when I started my career way back in 1974 coming up from the college, I joined the Orion News, which that time there were only two newspaper publications in the country for the Filipino-Chinese community. And I was under the leadership of Mrs. Kerima Polotan-Tuvera – the wife of the then Executive Secretary Johnny Tuvera. Although I was in the media career for quite some time only, but when I joined the Federation, I’m also both in the media affairs.

And today, with our President’s visit to China, I missed to be there but I’m sure the relationship will be very progressive and prosperous. We are quite optimistic especially in the business sector, the community. We understand that there were 14 MOA agreements—MOU signed during the visit and we look forward that all of these will be achieved in the soonest time with the help of both countries – government and public sectors and all the citizens of the country.

Because China and us is only… we can consider a neighboring countries and also our Sultan, way back in the Qing Dynasty, visited China. And what I understand, the only foreign leader that’s been allowed to be buried in China is our Sultan of Sulu. Our Sultan of Sulu was buried in Dezhou of Shandong Province and there is a big museum being celebrated and then being recognized by the people of China. And the siblings of the Sultan of Sulu stayed there and they become Chinese already.

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Looking forward for a very good relationship. Thank you, [unclear]

MODERATOR: Professor…

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yes, thank you. Thank you and good morning to everyone and it’s a pleasure to be here sitting alongside my distinguished co-panelists. And again, I’m Dr. Froilan Calilung from University of Sto. Tomas and also teaching with the Development Academy of the Philippines. I handle basically public policy and national security, so this is one of the more contentious topics that we have had over the past several decades.

And I’m very excited to actually shed some light, at least from an academic perspective because there had been various researches that have been conducted along the lines of the debacles surrounding the West Philippine Sea. And probably, I would try to encapsulate all of those or some of those insights into our discussions for this morning.

So with that, again, I’m very happy to be here and hopefully we will be able to address all of your questions. Thank you so much.

Q: Siguro unahin nating tanungin si Ambassador. Being a journalist at heart, I supposed hindi po kayo napipikon sa tanong ano?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Depende po sa tanong [laughter].

Q: Ambassador, narinig namin iyong pangako/pledges – 24 billion dollars…

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Twenty two.

Q: Twenty two, yeah. Panahon ni dating Pangulong Duterte umabot ng 48 ang pangako eh.

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Ngayon, twenty four lang yata.

Q: Forty eight ang pledges. Ang natupad… noong unang dalaw niya, 24 ang dala niyang pangako pero succeedingly… yearly may mga pangakong investment. Nag-check po ako sa Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, wala pong dalawang bilyong dolyar ang pumasok. Ang tanong ko po sa inyo, paano maiiwasan—ang taas ng expectation eh, para lang ano iyan eh delivery, reality versus ano. Anong gagawin natin, natuto na ba tayo sa nakalipas na umaasa tayo ng langit eh iyon pala ay lupa lang ang darating?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Salamat sa tanong. Pero bago ko sagutin iyan, linawin ko nga pala — linawin ko ay Jaime Florcruz. Hindi po ako Jaime Cruz or Jaime Flor – Jaime Florcruz po. Alam ko unusual pero ganoon po ang pangalan ko, capitalized iyong “C”.

So, ang sagot ko po diyan, tama ho iyon. Dapat sa mga pakitungo natin sa ibang bansa, hindi po sapat na mag-sign lang ng kasulatan, MOU, tapos mag-picture taking tapos walang mangyayari. Iyon din po ang sinasabi ko sa mga kasama sa business, mga Pilipinong in charge sa ganitong trade, commerce, hindi po sapat na magkuhanan lang ng litrato at i-announce na ganito ang mga pangako.

Paano po natin maa-assure na, iyon nga, mangyayari iyong pinapangako? Hindi po madali ‘no kasi nga kailangan ng follow through; at iyon ang importante. Iyong mga pledges po, una, tingin ko ay nanggagaling sa taas, hindi lamang ng mga kumpaniya, mga Chinese companies na nag-sign. This time po ay nararamdaman ko na iyong mga pledges, iyong mga MOUs ay talagang senyales ng mga opisyal sa taas na this time, we deliver. We deliver tangible benefits, tangible projects. Of course, in the end, nasa ating side, sa Filipino side na i-assure na mangyayari iyong mga pinirmahang MOU, MOIs. Nasa ating ahensiya, mga ahensiya ng ating gobyerno na siguraduhin na iyong mga pinangako, iyong mga pinirmahan ay talagang mangyayari.

Pero kung titingnan po natin iyong 14 agreements, nakikita po naman natin na mukhang solid naman ang mga proyekto na nasa table ngayon ‘no. Halimbawa po, iyong agreement ng Baowu Steel at SteelAsia, ang ini-expect po natin ay magpapasok ng 1.5 to 2 billion dollar investment para magtayo ng unang-unang liquid steel plant. Hindi po natin siguro alam na we are one of the few countries in Southeast Asia which does not produce our own steel plants or … lalo na iyong glass furnace.

So ang plano pong ito ay mag-uumpisa iyong ating steel industry. Kasi kung wala tayong steel industry na sarili, iyong manufacturing natin, lalo lagi tayong reliant on imports. So iyon po ang isa sa mga nakikita kong magandang proyekto. This will also produce about 2,000 to 3,000 jobs. So makikita natin, tangible iyong goal nitong proyektong ito.

Isa pang gusto kong sabihin, halimbawa iyong DICT project ‘no, software ito ‘no. Pero ang maganda po rito ay nakausap ko si Secretary Uy – katabi ko sa roundtable – sabi niya, hindi lamang iyan, magsi-set up sila ng mga opisina dito, kung hindi may iniisip tayo na knowledge transfer; iyong training na makukuha natin from these various Chinese companies who are interested to bring in their knowledge, their technology on AI, data cloud computing at mag-train sila ng mga Pilipino, mga kabataang Pilipino para ma-transfer iyong knowledge at, potentially, ma-hire sila na after training na makapagtrabaho sa Chinese companies or other companies.

Ang gusto ko rin matanto natin, ito po ay umpisa pa lang. Hindi po ito ang end all ng ating relasyon, trade or commercial relation to China; this is the beginning. Marami pa pong potential projects na puwede nating pag-aralan at siguro i-pursue. So iyong 22 billion-pledge, ano po iyan, umpisa sa maaari pang makuha nating mga benefits.

The whole idea is, China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world; second biggest economy in world; at siya po ang ating major, in fact, number one trading partner. Kailangan po nating i-balance iyong trade and balance so selling durian, selling more pineapple and cavendish banana will help pero maliit po iyon kung titingnan natin sa kabuuan. So kailangan natin ng iba pang proyekto para mapalakas natin iyong sarili nating economy, self-reliance. At saka iyong mga proyekto pong nilagdaan, pinirmahan, pinag-agree-han, makikita po ninyo, aligned ito sa mga goal ng ating gobyerno – agriculture, clean energy, renewable energy, infrastructure connectivity. Makikita po aligned ito sa ating pangangailangan dito. Hindi lang po ito dahil gustong magbenta ang China kung hindi dahil po kailangan natin at magbi-benefit tayo sa mga ganitong agreement.

Q: Opo. Ambassador, iyon pong pautang sa gobyerno, kasi iyong sa private sector ay hindi problema iyan eh. Kadalasan [unclear]. May kasabihan, “The devil is in the detail.” Sino po ang naghanda ng parang complete staff work? Kasi noong nakaraang administrasyong Duterte, ang daming pautang na hindi itinuloy; nalimutang itanong kung magkano ang interest rates. Eh para palang pawnshop ang interest eh kaya hindi tinuloy.

Q: Follow up din doon ‘no. May nagsasabi na mataas ang interest rates na tsina-charge ng China compared to Japan ODA. How true is this?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Opo. Kailangan pa rin nating i-distinguish iyong commercial loan at saka government loans or government to government loans. Ang atin pong inaasam ay ma-match ng China iyong, halimbawa, iyong loans ng Japan ‘no in better terms at saka grace period, halimbawa. So nasa dalawang ahensiya po na i-negotiate iyong mga terms na iyon.

Totoo po na kailangan nating ma-maximize iyong benefit kasi hindi naman po … kakaunti lang pong bansa ang nakakapag-offer ng loans, at China happens to be one of them. Ang goal po natin is to seek the best terms if we are taking up loans halimbawa kung sa railway or other infrastructure projects. Tama po iyon, kailangan ma-match man lang. kung maghahanap tayo ng loans, we go to the best source.

Q: So iri-renegotiate iyong itinapon na noon ng DOTr na pagkakataon kasi sobrang taas ang interest rates?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: I think gusto po nating i-revive iyong pag-uusap tungkol sa mga loans halimbawa kung sa trade, railway projects or other projects. So we hope to get the best deal from China, as well as from Japan or whoever else is willing to give us, you know, beneficial loans. Pero iyon nga po, it’s a commercial and government-to-government level negotiations that we hope we can revive.

Q: Mayroon po bang deadline diyan? Kasi hindi ko naman masisi diyan iyong China eh. Ang kadalasan ang problema ay nasa side natin. Mayroon bang deadline na tinitingnan? Kasi iyong nasa private sector, sabi nga nila, kapag tatlong meeting na at walang nangyari, walang patutunguhan iyan eh. Hanggang kailan natin aasahan na puwedeng i-renegotiate iyong sobrang taas na mga interest rates na available na financial facilities?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Nasa atin nga po iyong burden kung gaano tayo kabilis at ka-efficient. So depende po sa ating mga agencies, sa kanilang pag-uusap sa kanilang counterparts, pero siyempre kung tayo ang masusunod – the earlier the better.

Q: Iyong one of the more contentious issues ngayon ay iyong swarming strategy ng appears to be China Coast Guard at saka maritime militia na recently na-figure in a parang standout sa Ayungin Shoal. Mayroon na bang direct communication na napag-uusapan para to avoid any possible misencounter or misunderstanding? Lagyan ko pa ng ano, palawakin ko pa iyong tanong.

Recently, may policy statement na inilabas ang Ministry of National Defense ng Japan – kina-classify ang China, short of saying public enemy number one ng Japan. Of course, alam natin kung ano ang stand ng US. Of course, ang India sabi nila friendly ang China pero lahat ng ka-border may away. Doctor, paano nangyari na iyong friendly, ang lahat ng katabing bansa ay kaaway?

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yes. That’s a very good question. To  be very honest, if I may echo-out iyong binanggit ni ating former Foreign Affairs Secretary Teddy Locsin, sabi niya “The Philippines is in a  very, very precarious position especially dito sa problema ng West Philippine Sea because on one hand we have to contend with a traditional ally and of course we maintain a treaty with the United States of America; and on the other hand, we have to also contend with a regional economic super power, and also a very strong neighbor in the person nga of China.”

So, medyo mahirap talaga itong ating ginagalawan ngayon, and siguro para masagot iyong tanong ‘no tingnan na lang natin how China actually tried to deal in the past with some of the arrangements that had been made na hindi talaga naisakatuparan, probably, because there is a lack of utmost commitment and sincerity on the part of China. There has been a lot of communique that had been signed in the past, there had been a lot of arrangements and agreements that had been forged, but when you try to look at how these things played out for us, makikita pa rin natin na nandiyan pa rin iyong incursions sa West Philippine Sea, nandiyan pa rin iyong kanilang naval fleet, pinagbabawalan pa rin iyong ating mga mangingisda doon sa area. So, again there’s really that lingering doubt on our part as to how, and what is really the purpose here of China.

So, siguro isa sa pinakamaganda natin talagang i-advance dito is iyong finalization noong tinatawag nating Code of Conduct doon sa West Philippine Sea. But this also is quite ambiguous to some extent and somewhat also difficult to actually make it possible kasi marami dito sa Code of Conduct na ito, iyong mga provisions niya ay parang mga aspirational, or hindi siya talaga ganoon kadaling ma-attain especially when we do it in the operational level. So, that is a problem.

So, I think what the Philippines could do here is primarily to focus nga on the attainment and the finalization of this Code of Conduct, while at the same time, forging bilateral transactions with China, and at the same time also trying to come up with mini-lateral o iyong tinatawag o iyong tinatawag nating puwedeng trilateral negotiations with the other claimants’ states. So, I think that could be the best position that the Philippines could take at this point in time ‘no especially in our dealing with China. Kasi medyo mahirap ispelingin at mahirap talagang i-assess kasi may sinasabi sila on one end pero hindi naman iyon ang nangyayari talaga in reality – so that again is a problematic thing for many of us.

Q: Dok, may tanong ako diyan, paano nagawa ng…again thank you doon sa word na narinig ko – aspirational. Iyong investment ng China aspirational pa iyan eh, as of this time. Tanong ko sa iyo, bakit iyong Vietnam nagpuputukan sila ng China, kapag tiningnan mo ang paboritong puntahan ng investment coming from China is Vietnam and yet normal sa kanila, libangan nila ang magpatayan.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yeah. I think the thing with Vietnam, nakita na kasi ng China iyong stance ng Hanoi mula pa noong Paracel [Islands] debacle nila nakita nila na “Hindi basta-basta!” Okay. And ang problem natin siguro dito sa ating bansa is that unang-una, alam ng Tsina na medyo soft state ang Pilipinas, especially when you deal with Vietnam siyempre socialist iyan e, iba iyong klase noong dimension at dynamics ng politika nila. Plus of course we are always enmeshed with a lot of economic and sociocultural turmoil in our country – so, ito iyong mga siguro tinitingnan nila na “Ay, kaya natin itong Philippines kasi hindi ito kasing resolute, or hindi kasing aggressive, or kasing decisive ng Hanoi, or ng Vietnam.” At the same time, siguro medyo matamlay kasi iyong aking pagtingin doon sa Mutual Defense Treaty.

I think if this Mutual Defense Treaty has been aggressively pursued especially by our partner ally – EU or the United States, I think China’s aggressiveness could have been tempered out na vet muna, medyo na-taper nila sana ito, kaya lang ay medyo hindi natin nasunod nang maayos iyong ating treaty with the United States.

Q: Mayroon akong tanong: I understand mayroong bilateral consultative consultation mechanism na na-setup by the two sides since 2017, si Ambassador Santa Romana yata attended the first meeting ‘no tapos and they have a total of five meetings yata. Pero ang lumalabas sa mga communique na iniisyu nila I think parang mga dithering generalities, na walang diniscuss na ways halimbawa to stop iyong incursions ng China. Ano iyong naging ano dito?

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Iyan nga po ‘no medyo kagaya ng mga nangyayari kung minsan sa mga state visits after the pomp and the grandeur and the likes medyo nagwi-wane down eventually ‘no, so ganoon din iyong medyo nakita natin dito sa bilateral consultative mechanisms na ito ‘no. And I think with this ang isa sa tingin kong kailangan i-push natin dito on a more aggressive note ay iyong mga tinatawag nating risk-aversion mechanisms because by and large hindi natin talaga maiiwasan iyong pagkakaroon ng sigalot dito sa West Philippine Sea because both countries are trying to prove something. Pinipilit ginagawa ito ng Tsina para ipakita na iyong naging 2016 tribunal decision actually doesn’t make sense to them, and they will never adhere to that. At tayo naman ay pinangangalandakan natin dito iyong ating territorial integrity at iyong ating karapatan legally doon sa karagatan ng West Philippine Sea. So, both of them will not really parang agree to give one to the other, okay, so to speak.

So, what I’m seeing here is kailangan talaga iyong risk aversion mechanisms. Iyong risk management systems na nandoon para kung sakaling mayroon mang mangyayari mga sigalot dito, may mga altercations, may mga standoff or possible conflicts ay alam ng bawat isa kung papaano siya ima-manage, and at least, nakadetalye.

And again, as with any other foreign policy it all boils down to the commitment and to the sincerity of both parties to make it possible.

Q: Dok, balikan ko lang iyong Vietnam. Iyong kanilang foreign policy napakasimple, tatlong no – no military alliance, no aligning with other countries against any other country at iyong pangatlong no ay no foreign military bases.  Sa Pilipinas ito kontra, sa tatlong iyon yes tayo. Ang tanong ko sa inyo – sabi ni Biden hindi lang arms commitment, handa silang makipaggiyera kapag in-invoke natin iyong Mutual Defense Treaty, at ang atake sa Pilipinas kapag in-invoke natin nandiyan sila. Nawala sila sa, ano bang tawag nila doon – strategic ambiguity – nawala sila.

Ito ba ay nagpatibay sa ating paninindigan para medyo respetuhin tayo ng China? Of course, alam natin wala namang gustong makipaggiyera sa US.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yeah… it’s a very, very good question ano. Siguro balikan natin iyong nangyari lalo na noong 2020 ‘no na there was a time na nagkaroon ng parang major reaction iyong ating Pangulo ‘no na huwag nang ituloy iyong Visiting Forces Agreement – maalala natin dahil nga din si Senator Bato Dela Rosa ay hindi binigyan ng visa, alala natin. but several months later eh medyo nag-pivot ulit itong si President Duterte and he allowed this time around na mapagpatuloy iyong ating Visiting Forces Agreement ano.

So I think this is very, very important for us right now na maintindihan na China is really a military superpower ‘no. In terms of its militia, in terms of its capability talagang nandoon and no matter how hard we try to modernize our AFP, it will still be no match to the might of China.

So again, ang gusto ko sana ditong maintindihan ng marami sa atin is kung paano ba talaga natin ilalatag sa United States of America na tangkilikin at isulong talaga natin iyong ating kasunduan, okay. I think right now, America is in a better position to make this possible kasi in the past decades medyo… America also has to grapple with its own domestic issues eh, domestic problems kaya medyo doon siya naka-focus ‘no especially in its war against terrorism.

But right now, siguro kailangan i-assert na natin na nandito iyong ating agreement, has been there since 1950s and let’s try to make it a reality this time around. I think that’s the only thing that will make China a little bit more wary and conscious of its advancements dito sa geopolitical realm na ito, ang Indo-Pacific.

Q: Tanungin natin si Ambassador. Sinabi ni Presidente Bongbong Marcos early on that his foreign policy will be anchored on one principle, iyong “Friends to all and enemies to none.” Paano natin i-implement ito given iyong reality na malapit din tayo sa US?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: It’s a very delicate balancing act ‘no. Totoo iyon, sinabi nga niya in many occasions that we are pursuing an independent foreign policy – we are friends to all and enemy to none. Of course tama iyan, hindi naman ganoon kadali iyon kasi maraming hatak at maraming push and pull na nangyayari ngayon. Yeah, our traditional ally, US is there and then there’s the Quad and then of course China is watching. So ang signal ng China doing the best it is, we hope you can stay the course in pursuing an independent foreign policy.

So I think foreign policy begins at home ‘no… kung mahina tayo at puro lang tayo salita ‘no, wala iyon – all bark, no bite… hindi tayo irirespeto. So sa tingin ko isa sa kailangan nating gawin palakasin natin ang ating defense, bigyan natin ng resources at training ang ating Armed Force and Navy lalo na… ang Coast Guard. Hindi tayo puwedeng mag-rely lang—halimbawa, ano ba talaga ang nangyayari sa West Philippine Sea? Sino ba ang eyes and ears? Ano bang basis ng ating mga sinasabing nag-swarming… ano US or ‘di ba iyong satellite nila? Wala tayong sariling source or ability to monitor, surveillance kung ano talaga ang nangyayari sa paligid natin.

So in the long run, ang aking position, ang aking aspiration ay mapalakas natin ang ating ability to defend ourselves, to patrol our huge resources, maritime, coastlines at doon tayo magpalakas at saka doon tayo makakakuha ng respeto sa ating mga paligid na allies or at least friends ano. I think iyon din naman ang naging spirit noong diskusyon sa Beijing nitong nakaraang bisita na: una, sinabi rin natin ang ating mga concerns sa nangyayari sa ating West Philippine Sea, concern ng access ng ating fishermen sa traditional fishing grounds natin. So napag-usapan iyon at ang goal is to have an amicable equal treatment and peaceful solution to all these problems.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: If I may add… The problem po kasi with our foreign policy is it’s always dependent on whoever the president is actually sitting ano. So doon tayo nagkakaroon ng problema, iyong continuity natin medyo problematic rin. And anything the BBM administration is in a good position right now to learn from what the Aquino administration has accomplished and from what the Duterte administration also did.

So makikita natin may contrasting realities iyong dalawa eh ‘no. Iyong sa panahon ni Noynoy Aquino, dinala natin sa tribunal so medyo heads on tayo ‘no with China, kinalaban natin. Noong pagdating naman ni President Duterte, medyo nag-pivot towards China ‘no. So in exchange for economic benefits and economic promises eh [unclear] tayo pagpunta sa China. But ang tanong is: Nag-materialize ba? Ang tanong is: Mayroon ba tayong napala? Kasi kung wala tayong napala doon sa stands na ginawa ni PNoy—actually mayroon naman kaya lang hindi kinilala or walang ngipin iyong… ‘ika nga ‘no iyong pagkakalatag noong decision. At dito rin naman sa ginawa rin ni President Duterte ay hindi rin naman nag-materialize in our favor.

So I think the administration currently of BBM is in a better position to calibrate, okay, what is the best possible option – ano kaya ang pupuwedeng mechanism. Kasi kung hindi ito nag-work, hindi rin nag-materialize iyong isa… anong possible na gawin natin? And I think iyong sinasabi kasi na parang hedging ‘no, iyong hedging foreign policy eh tumigil so at this point in time is not very effective. We have to be very decisive about it if—sabi nga ni Ambassador, if we want to be respected.

Q: Doc, iyong ‘hedging’ ba sa Tagalog, tumataya sa kalaban?

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: [Laughs] Parang [unclear] sitting po.

Q: Doc, ano ko lang iyon. May pangyayari kasi sa Europe, iyong inaakalang mighty at kakumpetensiya… tier level ng US lumuhod sa javelin, lumuhod sa drone at lumuhod siya kay [unclear]. I mean, dito makikita na hindi pala ano… iyong malaking army, malaking military—military might ng isang superpower, lumuluhod pala sa [unclear] army using light technology. Ito bang pangyayaring ito, [unclear], anong epekto nito doon sa paniniwala ng China na they are the ‘mightiest nation’ sa Asia?

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Well, I think if we try to look at the… you know, iyong military warfare talaga in real political sense, talagang makikita naman natin na kung sino talaga sa panahon natin ngayon iyong mayroong control noong technological domain eh mayroon talagang advantage, okay, kasi we live in an era na hindi na talaga paramihan ng militia ‘no.

And the thing though with China is that hindi natin masasabi na iyong technological warfare capability is lacking kasi alam naman natin ano that China is also trying to level up to other countries in terms of technological capabilities. So that, I think could be a dangerous mix ‘di ba? Mayroon siyang technology, mayroon siyang mga satellites and at the same time mayroon siyang napakalaking militia force that will really spell trouble. And I think ito iyong ginagamit niya ‘no sa kaniyang deterrence policy, okay.

Alam naman natin siguro sa deterrence, kahit wala kang gawin ano basta ipakita mo lang kung ano ‘yung iyong capability, what do you have in your in your possession is already enough. Kumbaga, you’re just flexing your military might, your military muscle and that’s already enough to send chills ano, to send fear to the other countries including the Philippines. So, I think China has mastered this over the years ano, itong policy nga of deterrence.

Q: Sa FFCCI. Ma’am, siyempre pinag-uusapan pulitika at saka military, possible, military confrontation. Ma’am, sa private sector na nagninegosyo, paano natin … puwede hong magsosyo na lang tayo kaysa dumating tayo sa pag-aaway. Kasi kung pareho tayong kumikita, hindi naman tayo mag-aaway eh. Ano po ang nakikita ninyo sa 14 signed agreement na iyon ang low hanging fruit o low hanging fruits na puwedeng ma-realize na hindi naman sa kasunod pang mga administrasyon? Ano sa mga investment promises na iyon ang puwedeng ma—

1. LILY LIM: Of course, in the business sector, negosyante eh ‘di ba. So the most important ay mag-usap tayo ‘no habang… mutual winning, both parties on the win-win situation, everything can go. But of course, sometimes in business, one will try to be smarter than the other one. That’s why negotiation is very important. And that’s what we are trying to do also, many businessmen, mostly they prefer in the trading – very easy, very quick.

And then, for the manufacturing, better to put up a manufacture here so at least we can have our own local source and we can do export also.

So on our side, for the members of the federation, we have got in the manufacturing; we have also in the distributorship and also in the trading. So we also have so many SMEs. As long as we seek opportunities, as long as there’s opportunity, sit down and talk; mag-usap tayo.

And one thing is that we will try to be fair. That’s one thing we try to avoid because as new comer, as a foreigner coming to our country, they will be afraid also that delikado ba itong kausap ko? Sigurado may investment ito, it will not be [unclear] or what. And that’s why sometimes in our association, we try to mediate when they encounter problems. We try to introduce reliable business sector, businessmen to have a partnership with the foreign investment.

Q: So at this point, anong sectors ang attractive for Filipino businessmen to trade with China and vice versa?

Q: And Chinese businessmen investing here, ano iyong sektor na attractive?

 

1. LILY LIM: Actually, lahat eh.

Q: Sige, ma’am, kung lahat.

1. LILY LIM: Like for example, we talk about the steel industry.

Q: Tanong ko din po sa inyo ha: Ma’am, pinakamahal ang kuryente natin, paano po tayo makakapag-export sa China kung ang kuryente mo ay five times na mas mahal? Ang magagawa mong bakal ay seven times na mas mahal kaysa gawa ng China.

1. LILY LIM: Kaysa importing pa, right? That’s why we are trying to invite investors to invest in mga power industry especially in the renewable energy, all these things ‘no. That’s the basic. If we can get more investors on this portion and then let them invest throughout the nation everywhere, then that’s one advantage on our part.

Q: Ma’am, ang nabasa ko ay agriculture.

1. LILY LIM: Opo.

Q: Tanong ko po sa inyo: Maganda ang agrikultura ng Tsina eh, ang problema po doon ay iyong isang daan ng traktora, limang kilometro ang haba. Sa Pilipinas, singkuwenta metro lamang iyon eh kasi biniyak-biyak ng Agrarian Reform iyong lupa natin. I mean, paano natin mararating iyong—baka mali ang matching eh. Akala ng mga Chinese, ganoon ka-efficient ang lupa natin. I haven’t see isang—ang tawag doon, sa Quezon ang tawag ay isang mata ng ano, isang square ng palayan na more than two hectares sa Pilipinas. Baka pagdating ng mga negosyanteng Chinese na mag-i-invest, paano ang mangyayari diyan, magmaniobra lang ang traktora, sikip na sa lupa mo?

1. LILY LIM: That’s why one thing, if we can come up with a cooperative for the owners of those lupa, sa mga lupa, put up a cooperative, then each one of you are the owners and then they have associations, then let the officers deal with the investors. So at least, as an investor, I am talking not only to one person but it covers a collective measures, through the collective measures po. Ganoon po, ‘di ba?

And then, in fact, we are very rich in natural resources. During the old days, we were doing exporting. We export rice, sugar, everything. But time has changed; the mentality of the people, they would like to do white collar jobs. Everybody wants to go to IT, yes. Simple things ‘no.

I think education is also very important. We have to let them understand. If you are of this origin, coming from your hometown and you have that advantage, try to grab it. Maybe you don’t need to do it yourself, but there are so many people around, then that is job creation eh. You can give employment to the local people who has no intention to leave their areas and going out of their area and would like to preserve their own ancestral place or whatever. Maximize the productive measures of what they have/own.

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: I think we have brought up two important areas/sectors that the government also wished to put attention to, which is energy and agriculture. And that came up during the visit to Beijing.

Because the two are actually the two main sources of inflation – agricultural product, energy price. So, just as we are also seeking help from other countries, we are turned to China on these two issues. Why? Because they are also actually one of the global leaders in terms of renewable or clean energy. For example, storage, batteries – China is actually one of the global leaders in innovation, and they are willing to put investments here, move some factories here and share the technology as well as investment.

So we are hoping with our Department of Energy to attract more of such projects here. One big step we did was to lift the ban on foreign ownership on energy projects. So that has actually attracted a lot of attention and interest among many Chinese global leaders in this field – agriculture, you are right.

So for example, we wish to sell Durian to China and they are willing to buy in bulk, but I’m sure whatever we can offer is only a tiny part of the Chinese market. One of the participants of this delegation said, “Oh, the Chinese were asking, can you find us, you know, 2,000 hectares that we can plant Durian?” Wala eh. Yeah, good luck iyon. Kasi because nga our agricultural system is very family-driven, very small scale, and that’s why we have not been able to attain self-reliance on certain aspect of agriculture.

So we need also to change our own situation, our own systems. But we can tap the expertise, the experience and the investment ability of some Chinese companies just as we are also seeking help from America, from Europe, from Japan, from South Korea. Why not? If it’s good for our country, if it’s beneficial to our people, why not?

Q: Ambassador, ano bang talagang stand ng China, I mean, the government of China, talaga bang napipikon sila sa POGO o hindi?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: I think they are not in favor of POGO, and that’s why they drove them away. So POGO went to Macau. China drove them away from Macau, they went to Cambodia, right. Then China leaned on Cambodia and drove away the POGO and ended up here. So it’s really up to us. It’s not up to China. If we really don’t want POGO here, then let’s do our own technique, let’s take the steps.

Q: Opo. Doon ba sa pagdalaw ni Pangulong Marcos, napag-usapan ba iyang POGO, coming from the Chinese side? Kasi narinig natin si Senate President Migz Zubiri, kaya daw 60,000 ang Chinese tourists na dumating ay dahil sa POGO. Of course, alam naman nating sarado ang China, hindi naman nagpalabas ng tao eh. Ano ba talaga ito?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Hindi po napag-usapan iyan sa mataas na level nitong visit na ito pero I think on various levels before the visit malinaw po ang posisyon ng China sa POGO – hindi nila ini-encourage ang any form of illegal gambling na tinatawag.

Q: sa language po ng negosyante – is it a deal breaker iyong POGO?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Hindi po kasi sa tingin nila it’s a small part of the economic trade commercial mix. So, I don’t think they will miss it. Some players will ‘no [unclear].

Q: It’s local dynamics, and local politics na nagpapalaki ng issue na ito?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: I think po. Money talks, yeah.

MODERATOR: Let’s open the floor to questions from media. May mga questions?

PATRICK IBC 13: I’m Patrick [unclear] from IBC 13, and I have a series of questions for the three guests for today. First, sa paraang mauunawaan ng masa natin ano iyong mga dala-dalang investment ng Pangulo; and for the Chamber of Commerce po, paano nagku-contribute, paano nag-i-intervene ang Chamber of Commerce to materialize these investments, and ano iyong magiging impact nito – mararamdaman ba talaga ng Pilipino kasi over the years ang dami ng investments sa iba’t ibang pangulo and yet iyong impact niya hindi siya ganoon nararamdaman. And this time ba do we expect na mararamdaman talaga siya hanggang sa masang Pilipino? Iyon po are my questions po.

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Makikita po ninyo doon sa joint statement na mayroong 14 agreements, MOUs na nilagdaan noon. Iyong iba po noon ay about to be given, iyong iba of course it will take time to realize or to come to fruition. Nabanggit ko na po halimbawa iyong agreement between Baowu Steel and Asia Steel it would bring in 1.5 to 2 million investments plus may be create 2,000 to 3,000 jobs, and then it will lead to the first liquid steel plant ever in the Philippines. Mahalaga pong step iyon para maumpisahan natin iyong manufacturing industry natin.

Sa agriculture, renewable energy – iyon po ang dalawang napakahalagang aspeto ng agreements ‘no kasi nga una iyon ang kailangang-kailangan ng Pilipinas. Immediately iyong agriculture tapos iyong renewable energies, solar, onshore, offshore – iyon nga lalo na ho iyong offshore kasi mahalaga iyon na hindi ma-occupy iyong maraming onshore land natin. Tapos iyong storage – mahalaga rin po iyon kasi ito iyong mga cutting edge technology na iyan. Walang masyadong saysay kung naggi-generate tayo ng solar power pero hindi naman magagamit, o hindi natin mailalagay sa grid, o hindi natin ma…so, oo connectivity, kailangan po natin iyon, at kung may ibang sources sa ibang bansa the better ‘no pero ito po nag-o-offer ang Chinese companies.

So, iba-iba pong level iyong agreements – may government-to-government, mayroong PPP, may partnership ng private at saka state-owned enterprises ng China. Ang atin pong approach sa negotiation is first we respect our own strength. Tayo po sa Southeast Asia we have the best potential as an investment destination – doon po tayo nag-uumpisa na hindi po tayo namamalimos. Ang inu-offer natin sa kanila ay a business-friendly trade and investment destination. We can compare ourselves with the other Southeast Asian countries – iyon po ang inu-offer natin on a fair and win-win basis.

Of course, iyong government-to-government mayroon pong loans diyan, at mayroon din grants ‘no. Mayroon tayong ini-expect na grants, donations, mayroong halimbawa fertilizer donation at mayroon pa pong ibang mga aspeto na sana ay makuha din natin pero hindi po iyon kumbaga ano lang iyon bonus iyon ‘no. Ang emphasis natin is government-to-government projects, at saka private and public projects.

1. LILY LIM: On the part of Chamber po, as much as possible for a new investor to come in normally we tried to conduct several briefings or forum to let them understand the policy and laws of our country for investment [unclear], and then for other restrictions, and as much as possible we will let them understand that what are our culture. And also, at the same time we ask them what they are interested in, in what [unclear], and then we give recommendation, or we give our ideas, suggestions also for them to place will be suitable for this kind of investment or which area is good for this one.

We do our best and let them understand also the tax computation of our country, and then iyon whatever. We’re doing our best as long as they approach us or even, they don’t approach us and we understand there are investors coming in through the cooperation of the Department of Trade and Industry, we talk to them also.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: And on the question as to whether this will be felt by the people – this has always been a question even in my case whenever I have TV guestings laging tinatanong iyan – kailan ba mararamdaman, or mararamdaman ba talaga iyan? This has always baffled me even during the time of the late President Ramos – remember Ramos was the most travelled President during his time. Lahat-lahat na ng bansa sa mundo ay napuntahan pero ang tanong natin is “Ano ba talaga iyong nag-materialize? Mayroon ba talagang nangyari?” So, I think, right now ang problema, hindi ko masasabi ‘no na nasa Philippines iyong problema because we are trying our very best to make the Philippines investment friendly. Nandiyan iyong ating mga infrastructures, ibinigay na nga sa atin ang Build, Build, Build, kahit paano ay naisaayos na natin iyong mga farm-to-market roads, iyong ating bridges, connectivity among others, and nandiyan din iyong mga batas natin – we have the Ease of Doing Business, we have the Public Utilities Act, we’re trying to really open up.

The problem here I guess is, paano ba natin talaga nari-realize, kinakailangan siguro magkaroon ng inter-agency mechanism na kung saan nakatutok lamang sa pagkakaroon ng follow through, at mahalaga na referencing makita natin ano ba talaga rito sa mga pinirmahan na ito ang nagkaroon talaga ng tangible na resulta.

Okay, I think that’s important kasi wala tayo noon e, wala tayong inter-agency mechanism that makes that possible, so ang nangyari biyahe lang nang biyahe, pag-uwi siyempre political propaganda sasabihin nakakuha tayo ng ganito, ganiyan pero in reality kapag nakalimutan na, wala na, and then mangyayari bibiyahe ulit hindi ba, magsasabi na naman na mayroon tayong nakuhang ganiyan pero iyon nga iyong institutional memory natin pagdating dito sa mga ganitong pledges ay wala halos ‘no.

I remember, I would like to parang recommend from a political standpoint that we need to institutionalize this para at least mai-scale down natin, nakikita natin, ito iyong nangyari para iyong iba baka kasi nagkakaroon tayo ng unnecessary duplication na ng mga investments na napirmahan na before hindi lamang na-implement tapos pipirmahan na naman. So, I think that’s one way of also trying to move forward to other more productive areas. And para mahalaga rin na malaman ng ating kababayan na ito iyong nangyayari.

Remember na iyong multiplier effect ng mga investments na ito will take some time. Iyong trickling down effect niyan para maramdaman ng mga nasa lower strata ng society natin medyo matagal talaga. But it’s important that the government explains to the public na, “This is what we have done so far and this is the trajectory and this is where we are headed.” So I think iyon ‘yung medyo kulang sa ating gobyerno sa ngayon.

 

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: And of course the media, you have the role to do that as one. Iyong mga major railway projects – hindi ba iyong Mindanao railway should have been started early on? Tapos iyong malaking interest rate sa commuter railway, hindi ba China rin ang ano doon?

Q: Doctor, iyong pautang ng China Investment, hindi naman sa Pilipinas lang ‘yan eh – sa buong mundo may pautang. Ang tanong ko po sa inyo, ba’t walang nagtagumpay sa pinautang ng China? Sri Lanka and countless nations sa Africa, Pakistan – they’re on the brink of economic collapse.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yeah. Ito po kasi ay kaakibat noong tinatawag nating Belt and Road Initiative ano which is actually China’s dream of reviving iyong Silk Road ‘no… iyon ang naalala natin. So as early as 2013, President Xi Jinping has been very adamant nga about this investments, infrastructures, in the hope that it will be able to build concessions and political support from these countries.

And this is kasi talaga—this to me ‘no, based on our studies, this is really what China is doing – gumagawa siya ng mga patterns of collaboration and dealings with other countries para kapag nagkaroon ng mga malakihang problema, at least mayroon siyang makakatulong ano. Ang problema nga lang dito is iyong tinatawag ng ilan na ‘debt trap diplomacy’ na kung saan instead na nakatulong eh nabaon sa utang ano itong mga maraming bansa. And I think during the time of President Duterte, there were a lot of apprehensions or fears, allayed fears regarding this. But in-assure naman tayo ‘no ng Bangko Sentral at ng ating National Economic Development Authority that we will not go into concessions with China that is going to be detrimental especially to our fiscal standing.

So iyon ‘yung sinabi nila and I hope na iyon nga talaga ang nangyari. This is the reason why sa dinami-dami ng mga investment packages, infrastructure promises ng China, I remember parang iilan lamang iyong nagkaroon ng fruition. Okay.

Q: Sir, [unclear]… So dapat ba iyong tao na iyon, magbantay din doon sa mga pinipirmahang kasunduan nito? At the same time, follow up na lang dito, hindi naman tayo mauuwi doon sa debt trap tulad noong Sri Lanka, Malaysia o anumang mga bansang pinautang ng China – hindi tayo mauuwi ng ganoon, sir?

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yeah, oo. Siguro talagang kakailanganin dito ‘no, ng isang mekanismo kung saan talagang iyong ating mga kababayan will always be informed and at the same time will be vigilant about what transpired and what happened kasi hindi natin alam what’s really going on in this negotiations eh. When you are in the drawing board, when you are in the boardroom, we don’t know what’s really happening. I think there should be a transparency ‘no talaga na malaman natin bilang mga taumbayan kung ano na ba iyong mga napag-uusapan. So I think, institutional linkages or mechanisms like reaction should actually be forged.

Now, regarding the question on whether the Philippines could fall prey for the debt trap diplomacy, I think medyo natuto tayo ‘no doon sa mga naunang mga bansa na binigyan nila nitong mga loan packages na ‘to. And I believe medyo mas mahusay naman talaga iyong economic team even during the time of President Duterte, and I think they have come up with actuarial management and risk assessment for this kaya I believe ‘no, I’d like to believe na hindi tayo aabot doon sa ganoong debt trap.

Q: Ambassador, medyo ibang issue lang ‘to, tungkol sa COVID cases sa China, parang lumalala ulit eh marami; baka mamaya madamay na naman tayo dito sa Pilipinas. Kumusta po iyong Filipino community natin sa China doon at saka kinu-consider ninyo ba o nirirekomenda ba ninyo na higpitan iyong border? Kasi parang sa atin ngayon parang normal lang eh, wala nang higpit eh. Pero doon nagkakamatayan na, haba na ng pila ng mga ililibing/sinusunog doon.

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Totoo po na may kumakalat pa ring pandemic sa China at anecdotally noong nasa Beijing kami, nakita ko ang heavy traffic na sa daan so maybe it’s an indicator na mukhang nag-peak na sa Beijing. Of course kumakalat pa ang pandemic ngayon sa ibang parte ng China. Iyong mga Pilipino natin sa China, again anecdotally, maraming nagkasakit at maraming gumaling na rin kasi karamihan nitong variant na ito apparently madaling kumalat pero hindi siya as virulent as iyong other variants ano.

Pero ganoon pa man, marami pa ring mga Tsino na nagkakasakit – iyong iba severe, iyong iba, lalo na iyong mga matatanda na namamatay. Of course dinaanan din natin iyan dito ‘di ba, at dinaanan din iyan ng ibang bansa. So ang inaasahan natin na magpi-peak ito sa iba-ibang parte ng China, and people will learn to live with the pandemic ‘no, o magiging endemic sana.

Ngayon kung hihigpitan ba natin ang ating border, of course nasa IATF po ang desisyon, nasa DOH. Pero sa tingin ko po dapat lang na mag-ingat tayo, we minimize, mitigate the risk habang binabalanse din natin na hindi tayo discriminatory. Kung saan nanggagaling iyong positivity rate na mataas, then higpitan natin iyong mga lugar na iyon.

Alam ko na mataas po ang inaasahan na makakabawi ang ating tourism industry. So dati ang mga turistang galing sa China ay mahalagang bahagi nitong tourism industry revenues natin. Pero base pa rin dapat natin sa science ang ating desisyon, and again, nasa kamay po ng IATF at DOH, at of course ng Presidente kung ano ang dapat gawin.

Q: So, masasabi natin maayos naman sa kabuuan iyong sitwasyon ng mga Pinoy sa China?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Opo. Wala po akong alam sa mga nagkasakit na naging grabe ang kanilang kalagayan. Marami po sa kanila ay bumabalik na sa kanilang trabaho, iyong mga taga-Shanghai ang balita ko po ay okay naman, although maraming nagkasakit pero naka-recover na po.

Q: Good morning, Ambassador. Joyce Rocamora po from PNA. Follow up ko for that question, sir. Gaano na po ba ka-open iyong China in terms of outbound? Kasi recently President Marcos said he wants to revive iyong tourism exchanges between the two countries and bring back the pre-pandemic level figures. But since may surge nga, how are we going to do that, sir?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Ang alam ko po magmula bukas ili-lift na nila iyong control sa outbound at inbound. Inbound, ili-lift na po nila iyong requirements na, halimbawa 48-hour PCR test. Pero iyong outbound po ay… alam ko magbubukas na iyong restriction—ili-lift na iyong—halimbawa papuntang Hong Kong at eventually sa ibang bansa. Marami na po—may tinatawag tayong revenge travel ‘di ba, mangyayari po iyan sa China kasi tatlong taon na halos silang nakakulong sa lockdowns. So it can be expected na marami po sa kanila ay magta-travel overseas – siyempre hindi naman lahat dito. Kaya nga kailangan din po tayong mag-ingat. Ibase natin sa science ang ating desisyon without being discriminatory.

Q: Sir, are talks going to resume regarding the direct flights between China and the Philippines since they are reopening na nga po starting…?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: I believe mayroon pong mga pag-uusap na ang mga airlines natin sa kanilang counterparts to resume direct flights. Siguro ano po, gradual pero—

Q: May specific ba Ambassador, specific for example Beijing to Manila?

 

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Siguro Beijing to Guangzhou, iyong sa south muna sa Xiamen, and then eventually Manila to Beijing. Kasi dahan-dahan po, maingat din po ang ating mga airlines.

Q: Iyong China was among the first to develop a COVID-19 vaccine as early as 2020 yata or 2021. Bakit nag-surge ngayon, hindi ba effective iyong Chinese vaccines?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Mukhang kinukulang po sa effectivity, at saka hindi po sila nag-massive vaccination e. Marami pa po sa kanilang mga senior citizens ang hindi nagpa-vaccinate. Kapag hindi naniniwala, o tingin nila hindi kailangan lalo na po noong lockdown ‘no akala nila okay na iyong lockdown lang, hindi sila mai-expose. So, iyong iba po hindi nagpa-vaccinate, so ngayon humahabol po sila sa ganoong sistema.

Q: And they allow the importation for the first-time ng Western medicine [unclear]?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Wala po akong alam na in-allow pa nilang importation na vaccine. Iyong gamot, mayroon naman po yatang nakakalusot.

Q: Sirs, one last. Since Ambassador Florcruz earlier mentioned about fishing in the West Philippine Sea, just to give context, Ambassador, how will this so called compromised as mentioned by the President going to look like – is it going to be in the form of agreement, sir, and when are the talks expected to commence?

And to Prof. Froilan, what would you recommend, sir, for this temporary solution to work?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Sa level po ng pag-uusap ng ating delegation ng top delegation ng ating Pangulo sa kaniyang counterpart, wala pong detalye na napag-usapan. Ang agreement po is in principle na naiintindihan ng Tsina ang ating concern na ipinahayag ng ating Pangulo tungkol sa access ng ating fishermen sa traditional fishing ground natin.

So, iyon po ang napag-usapan, at iyon ang agreement na they will find a viable solution to the issue. So, ang magandang balita ay napahayag natin ang ating concern ng Pangulo na ito po ay isang mahalagang bagay sa kaniya, at sa ating sambayanan – na ang ating mga fisherman ay magkaroon ng free access to our traditional fishing ground, at naintindihan po ng Tsina ito. At ang usapan ay maghahanap tayo ng karampatang solusyon as to how ay pag-uusapan po ng iba-ibang ahensiya ng dalawang bayan.

Q: Sir, may specific areas po ba iyan kasi hindi ba Scarborough iyong pinaka?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Wala naman pong binanggit na specific area except iyon nga traditional fishing ground.

Q: Ano po ang definition ng traditional fishing ground? Tatlo po iyan, sa Pilipinas – West Philippine Sea, and Scarborough Shoal; sa UNCLOS-based decision ng international tribunal ang traditional fishing ground iyon lamang dito sa may Zambales – Scarborough Shoal iyon. Sa paliwanag ng China, ang traditional fishing ground – buong South China Sea. Alin po doon ang traditional fishing ground na tinutukoy?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Hindi po natin pinasukan iyong detalyeng ganoon. Ang pinahayag po natin sa kanila ay iyong kahalagahan sa gobyerno, at sa ating sambayanan na manatiling accessible iyong kung saan nangingisda ang ating mga mangingisda all these centuries ay magkaroon tayo ng access doon.

Q: Pardon my kakulitan, Ambassador, so kung hindi nadating iyong detalyeng iyon ibig sabihin nasa mercy tayo ng isang tinyente ng Chinese Coast Guard para desisyunan kung papasukin what is traditional fishing ground?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Kaya nga po mahalaga na ituloy itong pag-uusap on various levels including nga po iyong coast guard level. Ang isang agreement po ay magkaroon ng hotline ang dalawang Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at saka i-push through po iyong regular consultation meetings ng ating coast guards on the executory level. Kasi nga po itong diskusyon ay nasa itaas, at ang gusto natin malinaw sa taas para ma-implement ito sa ground level or ocean level.

Q: Iyon pong hotline na gagawing iyan paano po ito naiba doon sa existing hotlines sa pagitan ng dalawang navy, sa pagitan ng dalawang coast guard e sabi ng taga-Coast Guard kapag tumatawag sila ay walang sumasagot – kapag may sumagot, hindi raw marunong mag-English iyong sumasagot?

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: Tama po iyan. So, iyon po iyong mga detalye na kailangan linawin, at ayusin. So, yeah aspirational you may call that pero ang agreement po ay ayaw nating lumala ang mga sitwasyon, ang escalation, at magkaroon ng prompt action through the hotline kasi po kung may delay iyong pag-report halimbawa noong mga problema then lalala iyan, at the concern is it may lead to miscalculation, misunderstanding, and mishaps – accidents.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Kasi when we look at the West Philippine Sea issue it’s very contentious ‘no to begin with, and I think we have to be prepared for the long haul most likely it’s going to remain a stalemate. And hopefully, it will not escalate into a full-blown conflict – definitely, we are not looking into that.

But again, it boils down to do things ‘no – number one is sincerity, the other one is commitment. So, how sincere will China be if in case for instance will they adhere to the Code of Conduct in West Philippine Sea once it gets to be operationalized? Are they fully committed to it? Again, those are the questions that yet to be ano, and it leaves some kind of doubt on our minds ‘no especially in the public opinion of us many Filipinos na “Are the Chinese supposed to be trusted when in the past they said this but they did otherwise?”

So, that becomes a problem but of course, what I think we could do here is for the Philippines to spearhead the finalization of the Code of Conduct, and at the same time forge bilateral talks with the Mainland China – with Beijing, and at the same time come up with minilateral – iyon nga iyong binabanggit ko kanina, parang trilateral talks with let’s say the other claimants in the West Philippine Sea – in this way it will diffuse the supposed tension.

And we also need to understand that one of the conflict diffusers here would be the joint exploration for oil. Remember that all the other claimants in the South China Sea are hoping that there is really oil in the area, and I believe that there is. Pero siguro kung talagang magkakaroon tayo ng joint exploration, and if ever this will be carried out smoothly – I think this will pave the way for better harmonization of relations and easing up of tensions dito sa West Philippine Sea because everybody will actually be very happy in the long run because everybody benefits.

Q: Ang nakikitang solution doon sa pag-resolve ng maritime, and territorial dispute iyong joint oil, and gas exploration, so far ano ang…

Q: Hindi ho ba mas delikado iyon baka kapag nakatuklas niyan, amin ito. Kasi ang area lang naman na ie-explore ay iyong panig ng Pilipinas e hindi naman iyong panig ng China?

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Yeah, that’s the reason why we need to parang have nga iyong Code of Conduct doon talaga iyan magpu-fall under ‘no, plus the same time iyong mga risk management mechanisms if in case conflicts, or issues like this will heightened the tension – how are they supposed to behave, hindi ba? Iyon iyong kailangan nating ma-execute nang maayos dito.

So I agree with that ‘no, possible talaga iyan na kapag nagkaroon ng oil doon at mayroon talagang oil eh magkakaroon ng, for lack of better term, magkaroon ng suwapangan or something to that extent ‘di ba kasi—this is for me ‘no. Pero you have to understand, it boils down to the kind of initial engagement or arrangement that we will be able to forge if in case we’re going to push through with the oil exploration.

Nasa China iyong infrastructure, nasa kanila iyong technology pero nasa atin iyong sovereign right. So, how much are we willing to bargain, to negotiate for that? Is it going to be 70/30, 80/20? Are we going to go for 50/50? It depends, okay, on the negotiations and on the facts. Even the arrangement doon sa exploration eh, are we going to put it on a service contract model? Are we going to allow a foreign company to do it or is China going to do it?

Kasi ang problema rito, kapag China ang pumasok doon sa exploration mismo, ibig sabihin ang kinikilala niya iyong sovereignty ng Pilipinas doon sa UNCLOS kasi makikipag-negotiate siya sa atin as a state eh ‘di ba. So these are some issues na kailangan natin sigurong tingnan moving forward.

Q: [Off mic]

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: We will leave it to the experts. I have to go, sorry po mauna na ‘ko ‘no.

MODERATOR: Hingan natin ng huling statement si Ambassador, iyong closing – sum up.

AMBASSADOR JAIME FLORCRUZ: So ang ano ko, ang isang message ko na sa relasyon ng ating dalawang bansa, ito po ay hindi natin puwedeng… to neatly define iyong ngayon at saka noong mga nakaraan – continuity po ito eh. So ang gusto ko po nating malaman, ang gawin ay kung anuman iyong napag-usapan ay magkaroon ng tangible benefits sa baba ‘no, sa mga kababayan natin, sa atin.

Tama na po iyong mga picture taking, tapos ano lang, MOU signing. Ang gusto po natin ay after all those stages, may follow through at mayroon talagang mangyari na magiging beneficial sa ating bansa at sa ating mga kababayan. Ang choice po natin: Ang ating neighborhood, gusto ba natin itong maging battlefield o maging hub of peace and development?  Iyon po ang choice natin at sana po ang mangyari ay ang ating bansa, ang ating kapaligiran ay maging hub of peace and development – iyon po ang ating goal. Salamat po.

MODERATOR: [Overlapping voices]… Last statement ng ating mga guests. Si ma’am… Ma’am, ano po ang inyong last message for the day?

1. LILY LIM: For the role of Chambers of Commerce and Industry, our main goal is for nation-building so we will work closely with the Department of Trade and Industry on the business side – for investment and everything… development in order to improve our development and having an economically friendly situation for the foreign investors to come in ‘no. That’s our role and vision.

BOI is also a strong partner on our side ‘no, nation-building is the most important for us to do our work. Thank you.

PROF. FROILAN CALILUNG: Again maraming, maraming salamat for having us. And siguro parting words… let’s just be supportive of the government because I believe wherever the government goes, we go together with that ano. So let’s not wish for the government to fail because if that happens, it’s going to be very problematic for all of us.

So this travel of our President to China, I believe, is not going to be going to be the last. We are actually moving towards cooperative measures with an economic superpower in China, and it’s imperative for our growth and our economic agility to forge ties with China. Not only now, not only in the present but most on the long run.

We cannot escape the fact that China is going to be a force to reckon with and whatever it is that we’re going to do, especially now our dealings with China will greatly affect the trajectory of our domestic economic policy. So, it’s imperative also that we try to monitor events, we try to be very vigilant about what’s happening and hope for the best.

Maraming-marami pong salamat.

_______: Salamat po. Sa ating mga kasama sa media, hindi kami nagtutulak na mag-away. Huwag nating kalilimutan, kung may bansang pinakamaraming pinatay na Hapon, Estados Unidos iyon. Pero look at US and Japan, closest economically/militarily. Ganoon din iyong pinakamaraming pinatay na German ay Amerikano pero magkaibigan sila ngayon. So we can quarrel today, kapag nagkasundo puwede naman maging magkaibigan sa hinaharap.

MODERATOR: On that talk, we’d like to conclude this Saturday’s edition of our regular news forum. We’d like to thank Professor Froilan Calilung and Ms. Lily Lim of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Thank you very much for coming over, members of media, and we’ll see you next Saturday. Thank you very much.

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