MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Magandang umaga, Malacañang Press Corps, and welcome sa ating press briefing ngayong umaga, March 26.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. led today’s sectoral meeting on the government’s response to El Niño and the outlook for La Niña. President Marcos has ordered the activation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation Online Platform (ENOP), a centralized repository of data for the understanding, monitoring and addressing the impacts of El Niño and La Niña. This will primarily serve the public and decision-makers as well.

In attendance of today’s sectoral meeting were the El Niño Task Force headed by the Secretaries of National Defense, Science and Technology, Agriculture and the Environment and Natural Resources. The Secretaries of DILG, DBM, Energy and Communications were also present. Updates were given on government interventions in water management, food security, energy, health and public safety.

A quick climate outlook shows that El Niño continues to weaken and will likely persist until May 2024 with a transition to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in April to June 2024. La Niña is likely to develop within the next six months.

And to give us the complete details, we have with us the DOST Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. Secretary Solidum, good morning.

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM JR.: Thank you, Daphne. Good morning to everyone.

As mentioned, the El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to weaken but the impacts like hotter and drier conditions will continue. Although the El Niño will transition to neutral by April-May-June 2024 season, there is also the increasing probability of La Niña at 62% in June-July-August season.

Also, we need to emphasize that historically, pre-developing La Niña is characterized by below normal rainfall. Therefore, the possibility of a slight delay of the onset of rainy season is likely and its effect will combine with the effects of the ongoing El Niño. Hence, if we look at the impacts of the ongoing El Niño starting October, we have seen some provinces to have dry spell. But up to March, we have seen the increasing number of provinces affected by dry spell and drought. As of March 24, 37 provinces experienced drought condition, meteorological drought and 17 experienced dry spell and 13, dry condition.

Now, the rainfall forecast would show us that by April, there will still be a lot of areas to be affected by way below normal rainfall – more than 60%, and also below normal; and rains will come by May but there will still be other areas that will have less rainfall. So, the forecast for the ongoing effects of El Niño would continue for April: We have 48 provinces to be affected by drought; 24 dry spell; but by May, it will be 54 provinces to be provinces to be affected by drought and 10 dry spell. So, almost the same if you combine both the drought and dry spell, but the drought-affected provinces will continue to persist based on DOST-PAGASA’s outlook – 25 by June, 23 by July and 10 by August.

So, there will still be some provinces to be affected by the combined effect of El Niño and the preparation for La Niña which would bring in less normal rainfall. Hence, we need to continue doing the operations for El Niño preparedness but also keeping in mind that we need to prepare for La Niña in the second half of the year.

So, what are the chances of La Niña in the coming season? There is a 62% chance of La Niña developing by June – August 2024 and that percentage increases as we move to the latter half of the year. So, government agencies will continue to implement the El Niño actions and of course later on, transition into preparing for La Niña.

So, that’s the summary. Thank you very much.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Okay. Secretary, would you like to talk a little bit about the new app or the online platform?

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM JR.: The El Niño Southern Oscillation Platform has been created by DOST through Philvolcs with the inputs from DOST-PAGASA and all the agencies that addresses the five sectors – iyong food, sa water, sa health, public safety and energy. And the public can actually look at the platform to know more about these different sectors, what the government agencies are doing. But they can also look at information materials that can help them prepare for El Niño and later on La Niña, and to make sure that they contribute to the preparedness of their communities for these hazards.

The citizens can also report what they observe on the ground and there’s a citizen survey that can be used – there’s a QR code in the website – and this can be easily accommodated through a dashboard. As the reports come along, then the more data will be stored in the app and the more people can see which other areas are experiencing the same effects.

There will be another part of the dashboard or the platform that will be exclusive for local governments to have more detailed reporting and also the other agencies reporting so that the President and other executives can look at the overall response of government so that we can have the same set of information to be shared also to the public later on.

Thank you.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Okay. Thank you. We can open the floor to questions. Mariz Umali, GMA-7.

MARIZ UMALI/GMA7: Good morning, Secretary Solidum. You mentioned a while ago that there are 48 provinces that will be experiencing drought in April and it will increase to 54 by May; and 24 will be experiencing dry spell in April and 10 in May. What are the implications on the different areas that will be also experiencing a drought and can you also cite to us these specific regions or areas in the Philippines that are particularly at risk from the impacts of El Niño.

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM JR.: Okay. By April, let me just cite the overall coverage of the drought and dry spell. By April, almost the whole country will be affected ‘no – total kasi ng ano iyan eh, 72 na both drought and dry spell. By May, the total is 64 so lesser number and the less affected areas will be starting in Southeastern Mindanao, iyong Southern Mindanao ay less affected na ng drought and dry spell.

Now, the implication is that we will still have the same preparedness even though it’s drought or dry spell. There’s still lack of water and so the lack of water will be the main factor for the different responses of both local government and the public.

MARIZ UMALI/GMA7: Sir, we just interviewed a week ago the National Water Resources Board, and they said there will be some areas that will be affected by the water allocation. How exactly are we considering this, considering—Of course, there will be lack of water as you’ve mentioned in those specific areas considering that there will be drought and dry spell, so with this condition that there will be a lot of water allocations in specific areas in Metro Manila/NCR and some nearby provinces, how are you considering this and what are the other actions being taken by the government?

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM JR.: DENR is on top of the situation; actually, the President has also mentioned that perhaps DENR can look at how to properly allocate the water depending on the time of day because, for example, hospitals need to have supply of water continuously; AAnd the household would also need water; and the irrigation—the farmers would also need water. So NWRB needs to ensure that optimum water allocation is implemented all over the country and, in particular, in Metro Manila in preparation for this prolonged effects of the combined El Niño and pre-preparation stage of La Niña. Standby deep wells will be reactivated – it’s not ordered yet – and this will allow the MWSS for its temporary use during El Niño.

There were also constructions of new deep wells in the east concession areas, parts of Metro Manila, and Rizal. This water allocation is really monitored by NWRB, so this will be covering the whole country.

MS. OSEÑA-DAPHNE: Okay, Jean Mangaluz.

JEAN MANGALUZ/INQUIRER.NET: Hi. Can you explain a little bit more so people are expected to download it? So this is a new app?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR./DOST: No, it’s a website.

JEAN MANGALUZ/INQUIRER.NET: Oh, it’s a website.

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM JR: Yeah. It’s a website so they don’t need to download. But it’s very easy to use; you can see interactive maps. You can see the forecast and the actual El Niño events, the affected areas. But also, they can actually look at videos and also information materials that they can read on so that they can actually implement conservation strategies for both water and electricity.

MS. OSEÑA-DAPHNE: You can have a look at the website now.

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: It’s https://[email protected].

JEAN MANGALUZ/INQUIRER.NET: So people can also report [inaudible]?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Yes! If you scroll the front page, there is a QR code that the citizens can report and the dashboard can actually accommodate what they report.

MS. OSEÑA-DAPHNE: Okay, Allan Francisco PTV4.

ALLAN FRANCISCO/PTV4: Hi, ma’am. Hi, Sec. Good morning. Sir, what’s the effect of this El Niño to our food sector?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Well, DA has made a lot of preparation and this was reported earlier on. The main issue is that we need to make sure that affected farmers are assisted. But to mitigate the potential effect of El Niño, cloud seeding operations have been done in Southern Cagayan and Northern Isabela through the efforts of DA, Bureau of Soil and Water Management, DOST-PAGASA, and Philippine Air Force.

And based on the experiences that we had, it can still be done and can be continued given the right clouds and advice of PAGASA. And the plan is to make sure that this is in the mountainous areas, upstream of dams so that if ever there will be rain, then we can still store the water in the dams.

Now, for the food sector, DA has implemented the alternate wetting and drying, and with the right seeds because they used, for this year, 60% are hybrid rice which would utilize less water. Actually, the yield has increased because you don’t need continuous water anyway for the rice. They also implemented the quick turnaround so that people can really plant right away and still use the available water in the soil.

Now, for those areas that have problems, the repair and rehabilitation of water harvesting structures were implemented; pumps are being provided; and, of course, alternate livelihood for the provision of, like native animals; and of course, for the fisherfolk, they have alternate technologies that they can use. The DA is also monitoring the supply of basic commodities and agricultural products.

MS. OSEÑA-DAPHNE: Eden Santos, NET 25.

EDEN SANTOS/NET25: Good morning po, Secretary. Nabanggit ninyo po kanina, hindi pa pinag-uutos iyong pag-reactivate po ng deep wells. Gaano po makatutulong itong mga deep wells na ito? Parang hindi na yata kadami ang mga available pong deep wells especially dito sa Metro Manila? And then, gaano po kalaki pa iyong ating water conservation sa mga dams bago po dumating iyong La Niña?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Okay. Sa ulat ng DENR, iyong kritikal diyan ay iyong bandang buwan ng Mayo na kung saan iyong level ng mga dams ay baka nasa mababang level na based on the operating level. Kaya itong mga deep wells ay makakatulong sa pagbibigay ng dagdag na volume ng water. Alam ninyo naman na hindi natin pinagpatuloy ang paggamit ng mga deep wells sa mga lugar na mayroon nang supply ang dalawang concessionaire. At iniingatan din natin na gumamit ng deep well kasi kapag sobra ang gamit ng tubig ay may epekto sa ground. So kaya nga mina-manage muna kung kailan ito io-operate at binabantayan ng mabuti.

EDEN SANTOS/NET25: Ilang deep wells po iyong mayroon tayo, kung mayroong datos ang DENR?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Wala ako sa ngayon na datos na matatandaan ko. Pero sinabi ng DENR na may mga standby deep wells na sila na na-identify.

EDEN SANTOS/NET25: Na puwede pong i-tap anytime?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Yes, anytime.

EDEN SANTOS/NET25: Thank you po.

MS. OSEÑA-DAPHNE: Okay, Maricel Halili TV5.

MARICEL HALILI/TV5: Hi, Sec. Magandang umaga po. Sir, you mentioned earlier na mayroon tayong 62% chance of experiencing La Niña by June. So what should we expect during the transition period, ano po iyong puwede nating maranasan?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Iyong 62% by June, ito iyong probability na magkaroon ng La Niña in the next six months. So ibig sabihin, iyong epekto ng La Niña, hindi naman makikita kaagad iyan sa June; baka later parts pa ng second half of the year.

Pero dahil sa historical data, bago mag-La Niña, ang mga dumarating na hangin ay mainit at tuyo kaya kahit nagkakaroon na ng paghina ang El Niño, na ang epekto ay kaunti din ang ulan at tuyo din ang hangin at mainit, eh nadagdag pa ngayon iyong pre-La Niña preparation months. So na-prolong ngayon iyong buwan na mayroon tayong mga drought. So iyon po iyong magiging epekto, na delayed iyong onset ng rainy season, so our actions that before were intended ng parang second half lang ng year, kailangan nating ipagpatuloy hanggang third quarter for the El Niño or the drought effect.

MARICEL HALILI/TV5: So ibig sabihin, sir, hanggang kailan po natin posibleng maranasan iyong matinding tagtuyot?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Ang nabanggit ko kanina, mayroon pa ring mga probinsiya na may drought by August – ten drought and one dry spell, and two dry condition. So ang kasagsagan niyan is April and May, and then pababa na iyong bilang sa June, July until August. September, wala nang nakikita so far ang PAGASA na drought condition.

MS. OSEÑA-DAPHNE: Harley Valbuena, DZME. Please pass the mic to the back.

HARLEY VALBUENA/DZME: Hello. Good morning, Secretary. Sir, even though the El Niño continues to weaken, do you still see the worsening of its impact given the onset of the summer or dry season? Ano po kaya iyong epekto ng summer sa impact ng El Niño?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Well, kasama na iyong summer and El Niño combined ‘no, kaya nga by April and May iyong kasagsagan ng drought and dry spell. Iyon iyong talagang—nabanggit na rin ng DOST-PAGASA iyan. But because of the possibility of La Niña and the fact na dry and hotter, mapo-prolong ngayon iyong mga months na mayroon pang drought condition hanggang August.

But, the preparation for El Niño and the actions that we should take should be continuous. Now, pagdating naman sa summer, kailangan nating pagtuunan din ng pansin ang epekto ng init ng panahon sa mga tao kaya ang DOH ay nagbibigay din ng mga babala patungkol sa kailangang pagprotekta sa ating katawan sa pamamagitan ng pagha-hydrate, sa pamamagitan ng pagsuot ng tamang kasuotan, and from time to time, iyong mga nagtatrabaho sa labas ay sumilong at magpahinga.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Okay. Alvin Baltazar, Radyo Pilipinas. Please pass the mic to the back.

ALVIN BALTAZAR/RADYO PILIPINAS: Hi, Secretary, magandang umaga po. Secretary, kukumustahin lang ho natin iyong assistance natin sa mga magsasaka, in particular, iyong water assistance sa mga farmers natin lalo na doon Cordillera Region?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Ang DA ay nagbibigay ng mga tulong sa iba’t ibang lugar sa Pilipinas, at ang report nila base sa kanilang bulletin eh may mga lugar na naapektuhan at natulungan nila ‘no at lalung-lalo na dito sa MIMAROPA kung saan sa may Mindoro area ay nag-declare na ng state of calamity.

Pagdating naman po sa Cordillera na may mga nabanggit na sunog before – wala nang forest fire kundi grass fire na lang at iniisip din na minsan kapag nagka-cloud seed ay makakatulong din sa pag-prevent ng fire sa mga kabundukan.

ALVIN BALTAZAR/RADYO PILIPINAS: Secretary, follow up lang. Kasi ang ina-anticipate naman natin iyong pagdating ng La Niña – kumusta naman iyong mga water reservoir natin para maiwasan natin iyong magtapon ng tubig, maiwasan iyong pag-aksaya ng tubig na umaapaw doon sa mga dam? Iyong status ng mga water reservoir natin?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Actually, iyong forecast nga diyan sa ating mga dam ay pababa iyong tubig. So, kapag sakaling dumating ang La Niña ay sila ang magpupuno pa doon. But definitely ang isang, siguro baka mamaya ma-tackle sa second half ng ating presscon with the DOE, iyong concern sa Magat na alam naman natin na bumababaw kaya madalas magpakawala ng tubig ang Magat kasi bumababaw iyong reservoir at lalung-lalo na naapektuhan ito noong July 1990 earthquake maraming landslide diyan sa paligid kaya lalong bumabaw – so, that’s the issue that they also wanted to look at.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: There’s an ongoing meeting right now with the DOE and National Irrigation – so, mamaya ang briefing natin with DOE.

Katrina Domingo, ABS-CBN.

KATRINA DOMINGO, ABS-CBN.COM: Good morning, sir. Sir, can you explain to the public ano iyong magiging effect ng La Niña on the strength and severity of typhoons on the latter part of the year?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Okay. Puwede ko bang tawagin ang ating star for all seasons – El Niño Star and La Niña Star. Sagutin mo iyong epekto ng La Niña in terms of the typhoon, kasi sa El Niño bumababa ang bilang ng El Niño, mas maganda nasa climate modular po natin manggaling iyong specific na sagot.

ANALIZA SOLIS/PAGASA: So, during La Niña po usually po ay medyo mas dumadami po ang bilang ng ating bagyo since iyon pong pag-init ng temperatura ng karagatan mas malapit iyong pag-init sa atin – so therefore po, possible iyong potential tropical cyclone development na mas malapit sa karagatan sa atin. So, that is why there is a possibility na during the last quarter of this year ay possible po na medyo marami tayong bagyo and usually malapit po iyong development noong mga bagyo. Therefore, iyong preparation po natin ay medyo lumiliit po since iyong mga chances po ng developing ng mga bagyo during La Niña mas malapit sa ating kalupaan.

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Ibig sabihin niya, mas maikli iyong lead time; itong bagyo na mas malapit, mas kaunti lang ang panahon natin na maghanda. So, dapat handang-handa tayo parati sa mga bagyo.

KATRINA DOMINGO, ABS-CBN.COM: Sir, so what is the average number of typhoons we have in a year and by how much do we expect that to increase with the onset of La Niña?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: Okay. May model kayo sa ano… 20 at least, ‘no? So, iyong El Niño naging 11. Ano iyong projection natin for the La Niña episode?

ANALIZA SOLIS/PAGASA: For now po, by this year mga around 13 to 16 na bagyo po ang possible po this year – so, ibig sabihin po, maaaring below normal dahil mararamdaman po kasi natin iyong possible effect ng La Niña is last quarter of the year.

So, for now po 13 to 16 typhoons po for this year iyong ating predicted which is below normal doon sa average na 19 to 20 po.

KATRINA DOMINGO, ABS-CBN.COM: Sir, last follow up. Sir, you mentioned that there will be a shorter lead time because of the frequency…

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: The nearness of where the typhoon will originate.

KATRINA DOMINGO, ABS-CBN.COM: Because of the nearness of the…yeah. Sir, so what is the government doing to preposition programs, projects or even goods ahead of time?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: In any case, ang DSWD naman ang kanilang standard operating procedure ay nagpi-preposition iyan kasama ang OCD. So, marami na tayong experience na ganiyan – so, standard operating procedure iyan. In fact, nag-improve pa tayo sa ating disaster response plan kasi recently we had a meeting sa first council meeting and we approved the Modified National Disaster Response Plan for the better, at iyan ay ina-anticipate.

The issue now is people should really make sure that they are always ready kaya importante po iyong LGU level and individual and family-level preparedness pagdating sa mga ganitong panahon.

Iyong El Niño kasi ang mainit na katubigan ay nasa eastern pa ng Central Pacific so kahit bumagyo doon hindi abot sa Pilipinas. Ngayon, dito na iyong mass mainit na tubig, mas malapit kaya mas maikli lang ang kaniyang tatahakin at dito na sa atin.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Okay, Eden Santos, Net 25.

EDEN SANTOS/NET 25: Follow up lang po ako doon sa bagyo na around 13 to 16 this year po ‘no parang kumaunti kumpara doon sa 20 talaga taun-taun, hindi po ba? Ito po ba ay inaasahan nating mas magiging malalakas ang bagyo or hindi naman po ganoon kapaminsala gaya noong mga nakalipas na taon?

ANALIZA SOLIS/PAGASA: Lagi pong may possibility na may mga bagyo na mapaminsala, so not only in terms of malakas iyong hangin na dulot nito or possible po iyong medyo maraming ulan – so, dalawa po iyong possible po na posibleng tindi nang magiging epekto po ng ating mga bagyo. So, iyon po iyong kailangan din po nating paghandaan dahil nandito tayo sa combined effects ng El Niño although weakening siya, at ito po namang La Niña. So medyo kung maaaring maging rain-bearing iyong ating mga bagyo so therefore medyo maraming ulan pagdating po ng possible arrival po ng La Niña. And ito naman po iyong mga medyo malalakas iyong mga hangin kapag medyo during the southwest monsoon or habagat – so, possible naman din po iyong mga malalakas na bagyo in terms of malakas na hangin.

EDEN SANTOS/NET 25: Mababawi natin iyong tubig na mawawala sa El Niño?

ANALIZA SOLIS/PAGASA: Hopefully po. So, possible po but then kailangan din po natin iyong proper timing noong pagdating noong mga tubig. So, kung halimbawa po naman na last quarter ng year na darating iyong ating mga pag-ulan due to La Niña – so, ang very critical po natin is iyong the time na maka-recover iyong ating mga water reservoir. So, iyong July-August-September, hopefully po dito tayo maka-recover ng medyo mas marami po iyong ulan na darating para unti-unti pong tataas na iyong level ng ating mga water reservoir.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Okay. Go ahead, Katrina.

ANALIZA SOLIS/PAGASA: Sir, clarification, until when do we expect La Niña to persist next year? Do we have a projection already?

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/ DOST: Every six months iyan but—Do you have more than the six months projection?

ANALIZA SOLIS/PAGASA: So, for now nakikita kasi natin at least first quarter of the following year and it is somewhat weak for now iyong nakikita natin so kailangan we need to keep on monitoring po.

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM JR: So, parang iyong ating progression last year sa El Niño nag-a-update tayo every month. So that you understand, very dynamic iyong weather system so that’s why we need to continuously update everyone.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: And this is why we have the online platform to keep everyone updated, with specifics on localities.

SEC. SOLIDUM JR/DOST: So, the online platform can make you aware of the potential El Niño or La Niña, and the more data that we actually provide to the platform the better for the LGUs and the government to really respond to the effect more speedily.

MS. OSEÑA-PAEZ: Thank you. Maricel Halili, TV 5.

MARICEL HALILI/ TV5: Ma’am, just follow up lang po, iyong sinasabi po kanina na pag-ikli ng panahon nang pagbibigay ng warning and preparation, gaano po kaikli iyong pinag-uusapan natin, like kung ngayon ilang araw po ba iyong ginagawa natin kapag natutunaw [unclear]

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM: Hindi naman ganoong kaikli, iyong sabi ‘o may bagyo at darating na sa Pilipinas’ mas maikli kasi iyong distansiya malapit. Pero ang PAGASA can have a forecast of two weeks in advance. Iba iyong time of detection na posibleng may bagyo, iba iyong travel time. Iyong travel time ng bagyo ang ating pinapag-usapan – travel time; so iyong preparedness mas mabilis dapat.

OSMEÑA-PAEZ: Few more questions – Jean again? Jean Mangaluz.

JEAN MANGALUZ /INQUIRER.NET: May mga anticipated regions na po ba who will experience this faster storms, may mga regions na po ba na anticipated?

PAGASA MISS ANALIZA SOLIS: For La Niña for now, so we need on keep on monitoring iyong all going effects po ng El Niño. So for La Niña, hindi pa rin po natin nakikita, what are the possible areas, but historically during La Niña conditions, iyong mga nasa eastern section ng ating countries, especially Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas as well as Northeastern Mindanao. So iyon po iyong mga high vulnerable areas po during La Niña conditions, in terms of above normal or significance surplus po in rainfall.

OSMEÑA-PAEZ: Okay, Tuesday Niu/ DZBB.

TUESDAY NIU/ DZBB: Hi sir. Good morning, ma’am. Sir, isa sa concern din natin is public safety nabanggit po ninyo, ano po. Can you expound, sir, on sa paanong paraan maapektuhan ng El Niño at La Niña ang public safety and how should the government intervene or address this?

DOST SEC. SOLIDUM: Iyong public safety, in two perspectives: One is on the height of the hot temperature pagdating sa sunog, kaya ang DILG through the Bureau of Fire lalo na nga kapag buwan ng Marso ‘di ba fire prevention, talagang kailangan mag-engage sa continuous education and empowerment of communities so that they cannot fully prepare for the fire.

Pagdating din po sa isang effect ay iyong kahinaan ng tubig dahil kulang ang ulan, kapag mahina po ang water pressure sa mga pipes na may leak doon may chance pumasok iyong tubig sa labas na madumi, pumasok sa supply ng tubig. Kaya’t binabantayan din ng DOH iyong mga diseases related to water ‘no. That is why, ginagawan din po ng paraan na iyong mga non-revenue water, iyong mga leakage water ay ma-prevent, at iyan ay sa pamamagitan ng pag-aayos ng mga pipe na may sira o luma.

OSMEÑA-PAEZ: Okay, thank you very much. First of all, thank you to Ms. Analiza Solis, Officer-in-charge of Climatology Agrometeorology of PAGASA and, of course, Secretary Solidum of DOST. And thank you Malacañang Press Corp, we’ll see you in a little while. Thank you.

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